Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement or political faction is broadly considered to have ended, fractured beyond recognition, or lost its dominant status within the Republican Party prior to January 1, 2030, 11:59 PM UTC.
Because "the death of a political movement" is inherently qualitative and lacks a single definitive metric, the market will resolve according to one of the following benchmarks:
Consensus of Major Polling / Analysis: A clear consensus among major political polling institutions and national news organizations (e.g., Pew Research, Gallup, AP, Reuters) that the MAGA coalition or Trump-aligned faction no longer represents a plurality or dominant force within the Republican Party or national conservative politics.
Community Poll Fallback: If there is ambiguity or dispute among traders regarding whether the movement has "died" or merely evolved, the creator may conduct a resolution poll among market participants or rely on a supermajority (≥60%) consensus among trusted third-party political analysts before resolving.
Otherwise, if the movement remains active, recognizable, and politically consequential (e.g., through active MAGA-branded candidates, platforms, or leadership maintaining a dominant or co-equal role in the Republican primary process) through December 31, 2029, this market resolves to NO.
Note: The market creator may clarify specific quantitative indicators (such as caucus membership thresholds or polling metrics) prior to market close.
Background
The "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement emerged prominently during Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, reshaping the platform and electoral coalition of the modern Republican Party around national populism, strict border enforcement, protectionist trade policies, and an "America First" foreign policy.
Questions regarding the longevity of the movement typically center on whether MAGA will endure as a permanent ideological shift within the American right post-Trump, institutionalize under successor political figures (such as JD Vance or other America First populists), or fade and fracture following future electoral cycles or leadership transitions.
1,000