Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market where each outcome resolves YES, NO, or N/A independently based on events occurring between January 1, 2050, and December 31, 2059 (UTC), unless specified otherwise. Any user may add answers.

Options resolve according to verified reporting from established international organizations, scientific bodies, or major news publications:

• AI systems achieve broad general economic utility matching or exceeding human labor / Generative AI becomes a permanent part of daily life: Resolves YES if mainstream economic and scientific consensus acknowledges human-level economic parity or ubiquitous daily integration during the 2050s.

• Commercial fusion energy achieves net-positive grid integration globally: Resolves YES if at least one commercial power plant supplies net electricity to a public civilian grid from nuclear fusion before 2060.

• Global average temperatures surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels permanently: Resolves YES if the IPCC, Copernicus Climate Change Service, or WMO reports that multi-decadal long-term global warming has exceeded 1.5°C without returning below it by end of 2059.

• A permanent human base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if a crewed lunar outpost maintains continuous human occupation (analogous to the ISS) for at least one full continuous year during or prior to the 2050s.

• Commercial passenger flights routinely use supersonic or hypersonic aircraft: Resolves YES if scheduled commercial airlines operate scheduled passenger routes using supersonic or hypersonic aircraft on a regular basis.

• Global population peaks and begins a sustained decline: Resolves YES if official United Nations Population Division data reports the global population reached its peak and experienced at least three consecutive years of negative growth by or during the 2050s.

• Lab-grown meat accounts for over 50% of global meat consumption: Resolves YES if FAO or equivalent global agricultural metrics confirm cultivated/cell-based meat exceeds 50% of total worldwide meat volume consumed.

• Quantum computers achieve fault-tolerant scale for commercial cryptography and drug discovery: Resolves YES if commercially available fault-tolerant quantum hardware successfully breaks standard RSA/ECC public key standards or routinely executes production-grade pharmaceutical candidate modeling.

• Another global COVID-scale like pandemic: Resolves YES if the WHO declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) or pandemic causing millions of deaths or widespread global lockdowns.

• Human extinction: Resolves YES if human biological existence ceases entirely (note: payout practicalities aside, resolves NO if humans persist past 2059).

• World War 3 and global war launch: Resolves YES if open armed conflict breaks out involving multiple nuclear-armed major powers directly against each other.

• World becomes a global far-right regime worldwide: Resolves YES if recognized political indices (e.g., V-Dem, Freedom House) classify a supermajority of global superpowers and nations under authoritarian/far-right governance.

Any newly added options should include unambiguous, measurable criteria; if an added answer is ambiguous, it resolves via market creator discretion or consensus of authoritative reporting.

Background

Projections for the mid-21st century span demographic shifts, energy transitions, and technological milestones:

• Demographics: The UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs currently projects world population could peak later in the century (around the 2080s at ~10.3 billion), though some demographic research groups (e.g., IHME) project a peak nearer to mid-century.

• Climate: According to IPCC assessment reports, the 1.5°C threshold is expected to be approached or exceeded in the 2030s under intermediate or high-emission scenarios, placing the permanent status of warming above 1.5°C at center stage by the 2050s.

• Technology & Energy: Long-term roadmaps for experimental fusion devices (such as ITER and follow-on DEMO projects) target commercial prototype viability near mid-century. Similarly, space agencies (Artemis program, ILRS) target permanent lunar infrastructure ahead of mid-century crewed missions to Mars.