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What will happen in world under a global far-right global regime before 2050?
0
Ṁ450
2049
50%
Nuremberg 2.0 over AI
50%
World War 3 and global war launch
50%
Abolish and defunct all vaccine research and funding and infrastructures
50%
All science and public health infrastructures and institutions fully dies and abolishes
50%
Human extinction
50%
Implementing pro-AI agendas, projects, and initiatives
50%
All prediction markets as concept and idea extincts, dies, and ceases to exist
50%
Global totalitarian dictatorship
50%
Formal promotion of traditional family values and state incentives to boost birth rates
50%
Expansion of national surveillance apparatuses and biometric tracking of citizens
50%
Reversal of progressive climate agreements and prioritization of fossil fuel extraction
50%
State-sanctioned crackdowns on independent media, journalism, and political opposition
50%
Drastic restrictions on immigration and militarization of national borders globally
50%
Implementation of aggressive protectionist trade policies and widespread deglobalization
50%
Widespread dismantling or severe weakening of international human rights courts and treaties
50%
Probabilistic forecasting methodology on mathematical level dies, defuncts, and ceases to exist
50%
All AI technology infrastructures, itself, generative AI and all AI chatbots dies, extincts, and ceases to exists
50%
Nuremberg 2.0 over any pandemics

Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each answer will resolve individually to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specified event or condition occurs before January 1, 2050.

  • Precondition / Global Regime Condition: The question is framed around conditions under a "global far-right regime." Unless the creator clarifies otherwise, options resolve based on whether the described outcome manifests globally or across major world powers prior to 2050. If the market is intended as strictly conditional on a unified global far-right regime taking power, and no such regime emerges by January 1, 2050, options may resolve N/A at the creator's discretion.

  • Independent Resolution: Each outcome resolves independently based on credible international reporting, consensus among reputable international organizations (e.g., UN bodies, international courts, academic consensus), or historical documentation:

    • Total destruction / extinction options (e.g., complete cessation of all AI, mathematical forecasting, science infrastructure, or human extinction) require literal cessation/destruction as described; partial suppression or standard regulation will resolve NO.

    • Policy / institutional options (e.g., dismantling human rights treaties, border militarization, media crackdowns, climate rollbacks, pronatalist incentives) resolve YES if enacted as dominant state policies across major world governments or a prevailing global authority.

  • Any user may add new answers. Submissions that duplicate existing answers or lack verifiable criteria may be resolved N/A or NO.

Background

The prompt compiles speculative scenarios regarding the sociopolitical and technological trajectory of the world prior to 2050 under hard-right or authoritarian governance models.

The listed possibilities range from historical policy extensions (such as trade protectionism, border militarization, pronatalist subsidies, and fossil fuel deregulaton) to radical technological collapse (such as the total eradication of AI, science institutions, or statistical disciplines), legal tribunals ("Nuremberg 2.0" trials surrounding pandemic responses), and existential tail risks.

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