Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market where each candidate resolves independently based on whether they enter a custodial prison or jail sentence before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2029.

• An answer resolves YES if the named individual is remanded to physical custody to serve a post-conviction sentence in a federal, state, municipal, or international correctional facility (prison or jail) prior to the deadline.

• An answer resolves NO if the individual does not serve custodial prison/jail time by December 31, 2029, or if they pass away before being incarcerated.

• Edge cases:

  • Brief arrests, arraignments, booking processes, or holding cell stays prior to posting bail/bond do not count unless part of an executed custodial sentence post-conviction or direct contempt incarceration.

  • Home confinement, probation, community service, fines, suspended sentences without physical incarceration, or pardons/commutations prior to physical imprisonment do not qualify as having gone to prison.

  • If a candidate's criminal case is on appeal or delayed and they remain free on bail/release past December 31, 2029, the answer resolves NO.

• Resolution will be verified via official court records, government correctional department databases (such as the Federal Bureau of Prisons), or consensus reporting from major news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).

Background

• Several of the figures listed have faced public calls for prosecution or criminal investigations driven by high-profile political disputes:

  • Donald Trump was convicted in May 2024 in New York on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records and faced several federal and state indictments. Federal prosecutions under Special Counsel Jack Smith were wound down following Department of Justice policy regarding sitting or incoming presidents.

  • Figures such as Anthony Fauci, Peter Hotez, and various congressional Democrats (e.g., Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, Ilhan Omar) have been subjects of congressional hearings, threats of investigation, or public calls for criminal referrals from political opponents, but none currently face formal custodial sentences.

  • Private figures such as Bill Gates, George Soros, and Alex Soros are frequent targets of political rhetoric but have no pending criminal charges in US jurisdictions.