Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if, at any point during Donald Trump's second presidential administration (ending at noon on January 20, 2029, or upon him leaving office, whichever comes first), all sitting U.S. federal judges and all sitting U.S. state judges have been impeached by their respective legislative bodies (the U.S. House of Representatives for federal judges, and the corresponding state legislative chambers for state judges).

• This market resolves to NO if Trump's second administration concludes without every sitting federal and state judge having been impeached.

• "Impeached" requires formal adoption of articles of impeachment by the relevant legislative chamber; conviction or removal from office is not required.

• If at least one active federal or state judge remains unimpeached at the conclusion of the term, the market resolves to NO.

• Official legislative records (such as Congress.gov for federal judges and official state legislative records for state judges) will serve as the primary sources of truth.

Background

• Article II, Section 4 and Article III, Section 1 of the U.S. Constitution govern federal judicial impeachment. Federal judges hold office "during good behaviour" and can only be removed via impeachment by the U.S. House of Representatives and conviction by a two-thirds majority in the U.S. Senate. Historically, only 15 federal judges have ever been impeached in U.S. history.

• There are over 800 authorized Article III federal judgeships (including the Supreme Court, courts of appeals, and district courts), alongside hundreds of non-Article III federal judges (such as magistrate and bankruptcy judges).

• Across the 50 states, judicial impeachment rules vary by state constitution, and there are approximately 30,000 state-level judges. The federal government possesses no constitutional mechanism to impeach state officials.