Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the United States House of Representatives votes to approve at least one article of impeachment against Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at any point before January 1, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Key clarifications:

• Senate conviction is not required: Impeachment is defined as the adoption of an article of impeachment by a simple majority vote in the U.S. House of Representatives. Subsequent action by the U.S. Senate (such as acquittal, dismissal, or conviction) does not affect the outcome.

• Departure from office: If RFK Jr. resigns, is removed, or otherwise vacates his post before being impeached, the market will remain open until the end date, as Congress holds the constitutional authority to impeach former officials. If no article is approved before January 1, 2029, it will resolve to NO.

• Source of truth: Roll call votes published by the Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives and official legislative actions documented on Congress.gov.

Background

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was confirmed by the U.S. Senate in February 2025 as the 26th Secretary of Health and Human Services. Under Article II, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, Cabinet secretaries qualify as "civil Officers of the United States" and are subject to impeachment for "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."

Cabinet secretary impeachments are historically rare. Only two Cabinet officials have ever been impeached by the House: Secretary of War William W. Belknap in 1876, and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas in February 2024.