Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the candidate officially elected as President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election is the nominee of the Republican Party.

Resolution will be determined by:

• The joint session of the United States Congress counting and certifying the electoral votes (scheduled for January 6, 2029), or

• If certified electoral votes are not decisive or a contingent election occurs, whichever candidate is officially sworn into office on Inauguration Day (January 20, 2029) as a Republican.

If the winning candidate was nominated by another party or ran as an independent, this market resolves to NO. If the 2028 presidential election does not occur or is permanently vacated without an elected president taking office by January 20, 2029, the market will remain open until an official resolution can be determined based on the official certification of that election cycle.

Official source for electoral vote results: the National Archives Electoral College page and the official records of the United States Congress.

Background

The United States presidential election of 2028 is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Under the Twenty-second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, incumbent Republican President Donald Trump is term-limited and ineligible to run for a third presidential term. Consequently, the 2028 race will feature an open Republican primary contest to select the party's nominee.