Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 3% or more and lose?

Question

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model

Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 3.00% or more and loses.

The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (15 traders, as of Nov 7, 2026).

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