Will I study at the library every day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)

Question

This is a commitment device market about visiting and studying at the library every day from Nov 9 through Nov 15. I only started doing this a couple of days ago; theres a local library just 5min away from my home, which has great workspaces. It's closed on Mondays and Sundays but there are other options within my hometown, where I can go on those days.

YES if I study at a library every day.
NO if I don't for any reason whatsoever.
Bonus: Every unique human trader gets a one-time Ṁ10 bonus at market close.

Thanks for participating. ❤

YES if I study at a library every day.

NO if I don't for any reason whatsoever.

Bonus: Every unique human trader gets a one-time Ṁ10 bonus at market close.

Thanks for participating. ❤

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (16 traders, as of Nov 9, 2026).

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