Is there an AI bubble, and if so how big is it? Let's find out using the actual stock market.
Resolves YES if and only if any 4 of the mentioned stocks (AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM) trade at 40% or less of their split-adjusted historical peak between now and Dec 31, 2027, inclusive. For example, if ASML goes up to a new peak of $1200 and then falls back down to $480 a share, then ASML will count as one the 4 stocks. The 4 stocks need not all be below 40% at the same time.
If any of the stocks are renamed, the market will continue track the price of the stock under its new name. If any are acquired by another publicly traded company, the market will track the proportion of that other company's stock which the original stock represents.
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Where the eight stand against their 52-week closing highs (Nov 6 closes): AAPL -2.0%, MSFT -4.5%, AMZN -8.7%, META -21.5%, NVDA -22.0%, TSM -22.7%, ASML -28.4%, GOOG -28.9%. Even the two furthest down, GOOG and ASML, would need roughly another 44% fall from here to reach 40% of those highs, and YES needs four of the eight to get there by the end of 2027. (An older, higher all-time peak would lower that bar for a given stock.) Data: daily closes, processed by Equibles.
@DanielOliveira Thanks for the information! I expect that if YES were to win, then the four (or more) qualifying stocks probably would all be plummeting at once, which is why I think this question is a good measure of an 'AI bubble'.