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MANIFOLD
Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?
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Jan 1
2%
chance

Highest intraday high to lowest daily close.

Peak refers to the highest price the stock reaches at any time before the end of 2026. Only drops after the market was created count. Price will be adjusted for stock splits.

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Numbers for the resolution rule (highest intraday high to lowest daily close): NVDA's intraday peak so far is $243.37 (October 2026), so YES needs a daily close below about $121.69. Friday's close (Nov 6) was $186.64, 23.3% under that peak, and the lowest close of the past 52 weeks was $165.17. From here it would take a further ~35% fall inside the seven weeks left in 2026. Data: NVDA daily prices, processed by Equibles.

I made a new market similar to this one if anyone's interested:

Which of these prices will NVIDIA (NVDA) stock close above any day before January 1, 2027?‌

Does a stock split count as a drop in stock price? If not I recommend changing the stock price to the valuation of the company, which in this case stays constant.