Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030
Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).
Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.
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@Bayesian you're missing the exponential growth in iPhone Duo. At the start of the year, revenue from iPhone Duo was zero. By the end of the year, it'll generate >$10 billion in revenue. At that rate of growth, we should expect trillions of dollars of revenue in just a couple years. And that's not even accounting for the potential capabilities growth from iPhone Trio or iPhone Quad.
There's a limit to how many times you can fold a piece of paper before it becomes too thick to fold once more (I think like 7 or 8 times). But iPhones aren't paper, and there's no reason to assume that these standard folding laws apply to future generations of iPhone.
I thought it would be the funniest thing if OpenAI did it first so I made this market (doesn’t depend on who does it first though): /MachiNi/openai-flips-apple-before-2030
@Bayesian this should have been obvious back then but Apple is not going to zero quite yet reuters.com
@deagol Thanks. How much of a gap or lag is there between these contracts and MNX? /MNX/anthropic-mnx-valuation-futures-pri
@Bayesian I think Anthropic will not capture much more than a tenth of a percent of the value of AGI
@Bayesian a lot but I see no reason to think Anthropic will capture much of it as Ben notes nor that it will materialize within the next three years
@Bayesian fair but I doubt the gap between the market knowing and the value being here to reap will be much.