Resolve to Yes
When iphone is no longer the # 1 dominant driver for revenue.
Example
services makes more revenue than iPhones.
A new product category like Apple Vision cannibalizes iPhone sales phone for number one
People are also trading
Latest 10-K (fiscal year to Sept 26, 2026): iPhone $254.10B vs Services $123.30B, so Services is under half of iPhone. The gap also widened over the year, from $100.43B to $130.80B, as iPhone grew about 21% ($209.59B to $254.10B) and Services about 13% ($109.16B to $123.30B). With three fiscal years left before the close, Services would need to outgrow iPhone by a wide margin every year for this to resolve YES.
Source: Equibles
The Apple Car is another possibility.
We have a while left before 2030, I think a lot could happen.
https://appleinsider.com/inside/apple-car
iPhone has hovered around 50% of Apple's revenue for ten years.
The likeliest challenger is revenue from Services, which has doubled to 25% in the past 7 years. In my opinion, their focus on visionOS devices makes another doubling of Services seem unlikely.

