Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, during Donald Trump's second presidential administration, a Democratic-controlled chamber of the United States Congress (either the House of Representatives or the Senate) formally initiates an investigation into the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) or its parent organization, the American Conservative Union (ACU).

To qualify, the investigation must meet at least one of the following conditions:

• A standing committee, select committee, or subcommittee chaired by a Democrat officially opens an inquiry, issues a subpoena, or holds a formal investigative hearing specifically concerning CPAC, the ACU, or their leadership in connection with CPAC/ACU operations.

• A committee releases an official investigative report, letter of inquiry, or document request signed by the Democratic chair or committee majority targeting CPAC or ACU operations.

Edge cases and qualifications:

• Routine routine inquiries, informal letters sent exclusively by individual members not speaking as the committee chair/majority, or general hearings on related topics that merely mention CPAC in passing do not qualify.

• If Democrats do not win a majority in either the House or the Senate during Trump's second term, or if no congressional committee with Democratic control initiates such an inquiry before the end of Trump's term, the market resolves to NO.

• If Donald Trump leaves office before the end of his second term, the market resolves based on whether an investigation occurred prior to his departure.

Official records, committee activity logs, and notices on Congress.gov or respective committee websites (e.g., House Oversight, Senate Judiciary) will serve as the primary source of truth, corroborated by credible reporting from major news outlets.

Background

The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is an annual political conference organized by the American Conservative Union (ACU). Congressional investigations are typically conducted through congressional committees endowed with subpoena and investigative powers under the control of the majority party. Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second presidential term on January 20, 2025. Congressional party control is subject to the biennial election cycles (including the 119th Congress and 120th Congress), meaning a Democratic-led investigation would require Democrats to hold a majority in either the House or the Senate and formally direct committee investigative resources toward CPAC or the ACU.