Alaska Governor election: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vote percent (1st Round)

Question

Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvotegeneral/vote-percentages-in-us-general-elections/kxvotegeneral-govak-26jkre

Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.

Kalshi's rules: If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, At least 50%, followed by At least 52% and At least 54% are most likely. See the market for live updates (4 traders, as of Nov 9, 2026).

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