Are people expecting late-counted ballots to break for Peltola, at least enough that eliminating the first few rounds of IRV lets her cinch it, or for the people who voted Heikes (R, currently a very distant third) to not have listed Sullivan above Peltola? Or did you just forget Alaska does IRV? If they did FPTP then she'd be on track to win it unless late-counted ballots broke red, but as is, even if literally every ballot that isn't for Peltola, Sullivan, or Heikes puts Peltola above Sullivan, she won't quite hit 50%. In that case, Heikes will be eliminated, and his votes will go to his supports' second choice, which is probably overwhelmingly the other person on the ballot with an R next to their name...

@SeekingEternity Alaska started doing a new thing this year where they release the rankings for ballots that have been counted so far. I don't know where to access this information but NYT has done an analysis and concluded that Peltola would gain enough from IRV to prevail as things currently stand.

Late-counted ballots are also expected to break for Peltola, I think the ~3-5% chance Sullivan still has to win the race is coming from the chance that those ballots are much more R-leaning than currently expected.

@Plant Oh turns out they have the data in the article I linked

/ManifoldPolitics/first-round-of-alaska-senate-winner

What would have to happen for this market to resolve "other"?

@JosephCaissie I think Gerald heikes or fake Dan Sullivan winning

@Jack1 That makes sense; I was surprised to see "other" at 8% for a hot second and thought I didn't understand.

/Jack1/who-will-finish-first-place-in-the

/SaviorofPlant/will-dan-sullivan-win-reelection-to

I have a higher liquidity version of this market here. Someone can probably arb these with limit orders for free profit, this one was at 51% Peltola this morning while mine was at 63%.