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MANIFOLD
AI BUBBLE? Which AI companies will drop >60% from their peak in 2026?
195
Ṁ11kṀ61k
Dec 31
55%
Nebius
28%
SpaceX
25%
MU Micron Technology Inc
20%
CXMT (SSE:688825)
19%
Samsung (KRX: 005930)
18%
AMD
11%
SAP
11%
IBM
11%
Broadcom
11%
Meta
10%
Palantir
9%
Nvidia
5%
Alphabet (Google)
5%
Microsoft
4%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co)
Resolved
YES
Oracle
Resolved
YES
Cerebras
Resolved
YES
INTC Intel Corp
Resolved
YES
SK Hynix Inc (KRX: 000660)
Resolved
YES
Sandisk

Is there an AI bubble? Which AI companies are going to drop when the bubble pops?

Add your own companies, preferably at least loosely AI related

Peak doesn’t have to be in 2026. Any 60% drop from ATH qualifies

[cleaned up description as none of the pre-2026 stuff is relevant anymore]

  • Update 2026-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Price measurement: Resolution will use close prices only (not intraday prices) when determining if a company has dropped >60% from its peak.

  • Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For SAP, resolution will track the home exchange (XETRA) in Euro rather than the ADR (NYSE) in USD.

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If more answers are added that resolve YES immediately I may just N/A them, please don’t bother!

@Pjfkh @Gen Please add the ticker on Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE: 9984)

bought Ṁ75 YES

@deagol I was thinking the ADR

@Pjfkh let me know if you want to confirm it as adr and send the ticker so I can copy it in

@Gen I think that's SFTBY (OTC). June 1st close was $28.68 and last two sessions closed <$11.472

@Pjfkh I think this is [CIFR] now Cipher Digital. From Yahoo Finance profile:

bought Ṁ0 YES

can we resolve Sandisk? 66% down from its Jun 25th Peak as of yesterday (November 5th) @mods

@Gen Jun 25 close was $2335, so <$934 (60%) triggered last two sessions.

@Gen just closed in Seoul at ₩1,132,000 down >61% from its peak close of ₩ 2,919,000 on June 22.

@Gen resolves YES, thanks.

The two open lines closest to resolving, on closes: INTC's highest close was $140.94 on June 22, so the 60% line is $56.38. It closed at $60.55 on November 3, 6.9% above that, after falling 28.6% on October 30. NBIS peaked at a $286.69 close on June 18, so its line is $114.68, 24.4% below its $151.64 close, and it reports Q3 on November 12. Source: Equibles, https://equibles.com/stocks/intc/calls/2026-q3

@Gen CBRS close is 120.66 vs May 14, 2026 close of of 311.07 so should resolve YES

@Gen CBRS ATH close of $311.07 was on its very first IPO session on May 14, so a close below $124.43 today resolves YES.

@Pjfkh Shanghai stock exchange ticker SSE:688825 cc @Gen

bought Ṁ4,796 YES

@Gen can resolve now

sold Ṁ0 YES

@Gen Can you include the stock ticker/id (as you did for SK Hynix), I think it's KRX: 005930. Thanks.

sold Ṁ150 NO

@Gen my bad I added a dupe. If anyone wants to add more, do it soon, bc I intend to subsidise this market more ~tomorrow.

@DaniellqdC6 I assume we track the real one in Euro (XETRA) instead of the ADR (NYSE) in USD? The closing ATH for those are on different dates due to currency swings.

@deagol If there are uncertainties, we should take the "home"-stockexchange

cc @Gen agree?

@deagol Yes agreed

opened a Ṁ560 YES at 99.0% order

@256 did it twice this year, March 6 and 30. Closing ATH was $183.58 on June 20 last year.

@deagol ah, didnt zoom out enough in the chart, my bad

@DaniellqdC6 the all time closing high for $AI was $177.47 back in Dec 22, 2020, so basically every close this year (indeed every close since June 3, 2021) has met the >60% decline criteria.

@deagol Oh good, I haven't followed them but I remember reading an article from 22 I think "Which AI investment is better, Palantir or c3.ai" and thinking "c3.ai looks like the biggest scam, how is this even close?!"