Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?
21
Ṁ1kṀ2.8k2047
74%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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takeoff.watch forecast: 48%. Only SpaceX has a realistic path. Starship reached orbit in 2026, but Mars was deprioritized for the Moon and AI. With windows through 2046 and Musk's dates historically slipping 2–3×, it's near a coin flip: a bit below Metaculus (~52%) and well below this stale 74% market.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
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