Resolution criteria
This market resolves based on the official certified general election results published by the Michigan Department of State / Michigan Board of State Canvassers. Can resolve early if reporting from Associated Press has a clear resolution.
Margin of victory is calculated as the difference between the percentage of the total votes received by Abdul El-Sayed and the percentage received by Mike Rogers (i.e., El-Sayed % - Rogers %), rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
multiple threshold options can resolve YES:
El Sayed wins: Resolves YES if Abdul El-Sayed receives more votes than Mike Rogers. Otherwise NO.
El Sayed X% or more Resolves YES if El-Sayed's vote share exceeds Rogers's vote share by $X percentage points or greater. (For instance, if El-Sayed wins by 4.2 points, options up through "El Sayed 4% or more” resolve YES, and "El Sayed 5% or more” +" and above resolve NO).
Mike Rogers 3% or more: Resolves YES if Mike Rogers's vote share exceeds Abdul El-Sayed's vote share by 3 percentage points or greater (
Rogers % - El-Sayed % ≥ 3.0%). Otherwise NO.
1,000Trade on markets in the 26 Midterm contest, and win over 11k mana in prizes when the markets resolve!
@Jack1 there’s still 3% left to count, in Wayne and lapeer county. If he overperforms lapeer and Wayne numbers are enough we could even see 8% margin here. Unlikely though, I’d say sub 10% chance but certainly not 0
@Magnify Yeah I was so surprised.
I only bet 1 mana on YES >=7%, and if that really turns out right a 45x return is the highest I've ever seen.
As we all say after we make a decent bet - maybe we should have gambled more on it
@LasseRasinen the late vote will be heavily Democratic, I don’t want you to steal your mana, for the 7%+ margin
@Jack1 Extrapolating from county data El Sayed is going to get on the order of 10k more votes, but I skipped some of the smaller Rogers-leaning counties, and the margin needs to grow by another 6k votes or so to hit 7%. So <7% is still an option.
(The Achilles heel of this approach is of course assuming the counties keep their current vote ratios)
Could be interesting for traders:
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2026/10/22/the-curious-predictable-case-of-the-fake-poll
Trade on markets in the 26 Midterm contest, and win over 11k mana in prizes when the markets resolve!