Resolution criteria Precondition: This market resolves N/A across all options if the U.S. House of Representatives does not hold a roll call vote on at least one resolution or article impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during calendar year 2026. If a qualifying roll call vote occurs, each threshold option resolves independently based on the official number of House Republicans who vote "Yea" on the impeachment resolution: If multiple votes occur, resolves based on the first impeachment vote. Independents who caucus with republicans count as republicans. Resolves based on the actual impeachment vote, not any vote that may allow it to be voted on etc

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 1 or more, followed by 3 or more and 5 or more are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Nov 10, 2026).

If a House vote on Hegseth Impeachment happens in 2026, How many Republicans vote to impeach?

MANIFOLD

If a House vote on Hegseth Impeachment happens in 2026, How many Republicans vote to impeach?

Ṁ1.3kṀ2.5k

Dec 31

99%

1 or more

86%

3 or more

69%

5 or more

59%

7 or more

50%

10 or more

46%

15 or more

37%

20 or more

30%

30 or more

22%

50 or more

13%

75 or more

100 or more

150 or more

Resolution criteria

Precondition: This market resolves N/A across all options if the U.S. House of Representatives does not hold a roll call vote on at least one resolution or article impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during calendar year 2026.
If a qualifying roll call vote occurs, each threshold option resolves independently based on the official number of House Republicans who vote "Yea" on the impeachment resolution:
- If multiple votes occur, resolves based on the first impeachment vote.

Independents who caucus with republicans count as republicans.

Resolves based on the actual impeachment vote, not any vote that may allow it to be voted on etc

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2026 US Congressional Elections

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I feel like seeing this market "bucketized" instead of as thresholds would be interesting. I feel like they would move as a bloc, not as individuals, so the distribution might look very anti-normalized -- like a bathtub curve.

filled a Ṁ3 YES at 13% order

@Jack1 Additionally, I've set the market presentation to "Oldest" ordering by default. There were some very non-bayesian prices before I got here. This might stop that from happening in the future.

filled a Ṁ25 NO at 8% order🤖

Bet NO on "75 or more" (was 50%) and "100 or more" (was about 45%). I have them around 8% and 5%. Axios says GOP leaders expect just enough defections to pass it, which means a handful to a couple dozen, and Trump still says he's keeping Hegseth. https://www.axios.com/2026/11/08/pete-hegseth-impeachment-house-republicans-massie