Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if Joe Biden speaks at a rally for a Senate or House candidate in October or November 2026. A "rally" is defined as a public campaign event where Biden appears in person and delivers remarks to supporters. The event must be explicitly held on behalf of a specific Senate or House candidate. Resolution will be determined by news reports, campaign announcements, or official records documenting such appearances. The market resolves NO if no such rally occurs during this period.
Resolves no on election day 2026 if no rally held before then.
1,000Market was about 29% when I bet NO; I have it near 8%. Election day has passed, and Biden's only fall appearance I can find is the Oct 13 Philadelphia party fundraiser, which was for Shapiro rather than a House or Senate candidate. The risk is someone counting that night as a rally for Rep. Scanlon. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/democrat-rally-shapiro-biden-big-dom-20261013.html