Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on official announcements from Tesla or verifiable reports of the Cybertruck's discontinuation.
The discontinuation date will be considered the earliest date when:
Rebrand: The product name is changed to something substantially other than Cybertruck, OR
Discontinuation: Tesla officially announces the end of Cybertruck production with no plans to restart, OR
Internal stealth discontinuation: Tesla takes internal steps to permanently wind down production (e.g. permanently stands down factory lines, switches to selling off existing inventory, reassigns all team members, even if they don’t announce publicly), OR
Business failure: Tesla as a company ceases to exist (default, merge/acquisition), … If a successor company takes up producing the Cybertruck brand but doesn’t have “Tesla” in their company name, it’s a discontinuation.
If Tesla is discovered to have internally discontinued the Cybertruck on date X but an announcement is made on date Y, the resolution date will be the earlier of the two. E.g. “Yeah, we shut down the factory line a year ago and have just been selling off stock of vehicles since then” —> market resolves to “a year ago”
If Tesla temporarily suspends production but explicitly states plans to resume, this will NOT count as discontinuation. If Tesla replaces the Cybertruck with a successor while maintaining the same basic concept and design philosophy, this will NOT count as discontinuation.
If they call their next thing a CyberCar, idk what to do. Currently leaning towards counting this as a worthy continuation of the product line, because the intent behind the market is to test how long the “Cyber⋯” brand continues to be broadly marketable and appealing.
Considerations
Tesla has never discontinued a major vehicle line before, making historical precedent difficult to establish
The Cybertruck represents a significant investment in unique manufacturing processes and equipment
Market performance and regulatory changes could influence the timeline
The automotive industry's transition to electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences may impact the product's longevity
As of writing (2025 Jan), Cybertruck production seems to be paused temporarily due to poor sales, but it’s unclear whether the product will recover
1,000People are also trading
@KJW_01294 "the earliest date when: ... Discontinuation: Tesla officially announces the end of Cybertruck production with no plans to restart,"
Has this i.e. "the announcement" happened? Alternately does the end of production have to have already happened ie 'We will discontinue on some date in future' does not count it needs 'we have discontinued'.
"If Tesla is discovered to have internally discontinued the Cybertruck on date X but an announcement is made on date Y, the resolution date will be the earlier of the two."
Strictly it appears this doesn't apply as they haven't discontinued yet, but it still might be suggestive? Why talk of earlier of the two unless it can be either way around?
"the intent behind the market is to test how long the “Cyber⋯” brand continues to be broadly marketable and appealing."
This might suggest it does mean we will discontinue in 2027 does count?
But then there is
"If they call their next thing a CyberCar, idk what to do. Currently leaning towards counting this as a worthy continuation of the product line"
This raises the question of whether cybercab counts as continuation of the 'cyber' brand.
This seems a bit odd as question was created Jan 2025 and Tesla used 'cybercab' term in April 2024 and unveiled the vehicle in Oct 2024. It also seems odd as "Cybertruck product line" in question seems to me like a pick-up truck product line and if it meant cyber brand it should have said that instead.
So I basically have no idea whether this market should
A. Resolve to 2026 now based on announcement already made being the "earliest date" of announcement and production ending.
B. Resolve to 2027 in 2027 if/when Cybertruck production is discontinued.
C. Not resolve until Cybercab and any other Cyber-products are discontinued.
Traders seem to be leaning towards B but it seems very unclear to me.
Context for the 2027 bucket from Tesla's own Q3 update: "other models" production, which groups Cybertruck with Model S and X, fell to 7,004 in Q3 from 11,624 a year earlier, against a Texas Cybertruck line Tesla still lists at more than 125,000 a year. Deliveries in that group were 8,295, above production, so inventory was already being drawn down before the mid-2027 wind-down was announced. Source: Equibles https://equibles.com/stocks/tsla/documents/1e1febea-02ec-4fd4-9056-7acc6c414dc4
What about discontinuing and vague promises to maybe bring it back at some point if things change? The problem with basing resolution criteria on company statements is that the statements are designed to leave the company with maximum optionality, which is the opposite of what you want as resolution criteria.
Prompted by seeing this dodgy, unverifiable clickbait fake news article and a friend who supposedly has insider info but “there’s no way they’ll announce this publicly” etc etc. Maybe putting a financial incentive on the truth will draw the Tesla employees out of the woodwork.
Have fun.