Market will be resolved as YES if Anthropic reports a net profit after taking into account training costs in 2028. More precisely, if Anthropic releases a financial statement covering the 2028 fiscal year, and according to that statement their net profit after accounting for model training costs is positive.
The market will be resolved as NO if Anthropic reports a net loss after accounting for model training costs in 2028 fiscal year. If they report a net loss in one or more quarters, resolution will be based on cumulative net profit over the course of all four quarters.
If no official public financial report detailing Anthropic's profitability in 2028 is available by June 1, 2029, the market will be resolved as N/A.
Update 2026-05-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Profitability means net profit after subtracting all usual expenses (operating expenses, interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization) and model training costs.
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The November 2 S-1/A is worth reading for this one, because GAAP net income and operations are far apart. In the first nine months of 2026 Anthropic had revenue of $33.2 billion and an operating loss of $1.3 billion, but a net loss of $104.0 billion, with $94.3 billion of that from the change in fair value of convertible notes, derivatives and SAFEs. Notes that convert at the IPO drop out of that line, though up to $77.0 billion more can still be issued. After that, 2028 turns on compute: the schedule shows $44.4 billion of fixed obligations in 2028, before about $451.2 billion of leases not yet commenced, generally starting between 2026 and 2028. Data: Anthropic's S-1/A, processed by Equibles: https://equibles.com/research/anthropics-s-1-checked-against-amazon-google-microsoft-and-broadcom-filings?utm_source=manifold
https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/what-will-be-anthropics-gaap-net-in?r=SmF1bmRpY2VkQmFib29u I made an Anthropic profitability market that’s based on more clear criteria
@MachiNi I meant "Anthropic must be profitable after subtracting all the usual stuff - operating expenses, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - and after subtracting training costs".