Will the UK’s GDP per capita exceed the US’ at any time before 2040?
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takeoff.watch forecast: 3%. The UK's GDP per head in dollars is 64% of the US level. Passing the US would need sterling around $2.05–2.15 for a full year, a real level above its 2007 floating-rate peak, while the UK keeps falling behind in real terms. Mean-reverting exchange-rate models give roughly 1–4%.
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