Why is this market so different than other sites? I get the bias towards things happening but Kalshi has resigning alone at ~25%: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpresign/trump-resign/kxtrumpresign

and general departure at >30%: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpout27/trump-out-as-president/kxtrumpout27-27

if anyone wants to bet on trump’s resignation at the Kalshi odds is be happy to bet against.

I wouldn't take those odds. But 15% for all reasons combined is starting to feel quite low to me.

@Sketchy Idk why Kalshi is so high either, I feel that's crazy

But what if he doesn't finish his second term because the term is never finished?

@BillClintonBubba Noted.

How come there is no upwards movement here?

@VitorBosshard Optimism

@MartinSundhaug Trump's health is in all our thoughts and prayers

@VitorBosshard There kind of is, the market was sitting in the mid 70s in 2025

tbh there were more weird items about his health 12 months ago than now, at least that we're noticing

Also note that when Biden was showing VERY OBVIOUS signs of decline there was tons of denial. Was more obvious from outside the US than inside though.

Inside the US, republicans had been getting pumped for years with messages that Biden was going senile, so when he did start to rapidly decline they mostly couldn't tell the difference. And democrats were deep inside algorithmic social media bubbles so all the evidence of his decline got filtered out and replaced with healthy-looking images/clips.

those social media bubbles stayed in character all the way up until the first presidential debate 🤣

Not sure where you'd go today for some good data tracking the president's health. I'm sure there's some hedge funds that have set up sophisticated computer vision and language analysis models to track this

this sort of stuff isn't super unusual for 80yos

@dgga or if that doesn't do it soon enough, he could always be removed through the 25th or congress

@MartinSundhaug you'd have the same problem as before with biden though. Even if he has a stroke or something, Republicans would be in a locked in a fabricated reality where trump is in great shape while he'll be slurring his speech and getting around in a wheelchair.

@MartinSundhaug the republicans in congress would be lining up to do a song and dance for trump saying everything's ok, so they can get some pardons through the autopen for their friends and families

@MartinSundhaug wishful thinking *

Gunshots are fired during the White House Correspondents' Dinner at the Washington Hilton hotel. Attendees such as U.S. president Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump are evacuated unharmed. The suspect, a 31-year-old man, is detained and taken into custody. (CNN) (The Independent) (Reuters) (WTOP)

-from Wikipedia Current Events

I have to say, almost 18 months into this market and still very steady around 75~80%. Wouldn't have anticipated this.

@TheWabiSabi the man does keep trying to get himself removed

@TheWabiSabi Are you thinking it should be time decaying toward 99%?

@Eliza kind of (but maybe I'm betting to much NO)

@Eliza
Around 74% 6 months ago, so rising 4% every 6 months is perhaps surprisingly close to rate for decaying to 99% by end of term.

So @TheWabiSabi could have, more likely, been suggesting that more radical variations with events was more his anticipation of how market should behave?