Updated liquidity from the Q3 release (Oct 29): $5.502B of cash and short-term investments at Sept 30, $6.095B including the revolver, and $7.095B pro forma after a $1.0B non-recourse 10-year term loan from Volkswagen received in October. Q3 free cash flow was -$1,124M (vs -$421M a year earlier), so at that burn the cushion is roughly five to six quarters before new money. Against that, the VW loan shows funding is still open, deliveries hit a record 19,248 (+46%) on the R2 ramp, and the 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss is guided to $1.75B to $1.85B. A filing before 2030 needs funding to dry up; 15% looks about right to slightly high to me.

Data: Rivian Q3 2026 8-K, processed by Equibles.

As of 2022, Rivian had total assets of $17.9 billion and total equity of $13.8 billion. The company's revenue for the same year was $1.66 billion(Wikipedia). However, Rivian also reported a net loss of $6.8 billion in 2022. This indicates that the company is currently operating at a loss, which is not uncommon for startups in capital-intensive industries like electric vehicle manufacturing.

 According to Macroaxis, Rivian has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 37.0% based on its latest financial disclosure. This measure is used to show the chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. But, it's important to note that this probability should not be confused with the actual chance of a company filing for bankruptcy. It's a measure of financial distress, which means the company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations or delivering on the expectations of its investors(Macroaxis).

So, we can understand if they don't reduce their costs soon as they're loosing revenue they will be out of cash soon. So either they get miracle for sales and production but as far as current data suggests it's going to get bankrupt.