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MANIFOLD
Will 20K humanoid robots be manufactured before 2030?
13
Ṁ130Ṁ1.2k
2030
98.5%
chance

Resolves as YES if at least 20 thousand humanoid robots have been manufactured before January 1st 2030.

Different number of robots:

/RemNi/will-2k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-0686840a9b86

/RemNi/will-5k-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-cada66fe0215

/RemNi/will-10k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-c55c48255552

/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-027d2adb7b87 (this question)

/RemNi/will-50k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-3e64f6f470dc

/RemNi/will-100k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-d473dc54730d

/RemNi/will-200k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa-c5274fc882b4

/RemNi/will-500k-humanoid-robots-be-manufa

/RemNi/will-1-million-humanoid-robots-be-m

/RemNi/will-2m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-77a8d2eb7b1c

Different years:

/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-280c533c681a

/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac

/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-027d2adb7b87 (this question)

/RemNi/will-20k-humanoid-robots-be-manufac-dfdcca40f9e1

Other questions for 2030:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa

/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39

/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-35fc023d619f

These humanoid robots must meet specific criteria to be counted towards this total. Each robot must be bipedal, walking upright on two legs in a manner that broadly resembles human walking. Additionally, each robot must be equipped with hands capable of manipulating objects. The hands should have fingers or similar appendages, allowing them to grip, hold, and interact with various items. Each robot must be capable of autonomous function without external power for a duration of at least 1 hour in order to qualify in the context of this question.

Each robot must be between 1.25 and 3 meters tall when standing up, and weigh between 25 and 500 kg. Furthermore, each robot must be able to lift a 5kg box off the floor and walk with it for 10 meters in order to qualify.

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bought Ṁ500 YES

resolves yes @mods

Robot makers shipped close to 25,000 humanoids worldwide in the first half of 2026, up 432% on a year earlier, according to IDC. That’s a jump over last year - the total for all of 2025 was about 18,500. Chinese manufacturers built about 95% of them.