Resolves YES if on any given month, the yearly inflation rate is announced to be 6% or higher.
Resolves NO if on any given month, the yearly inflation rate is announced to be 0% or lower.
The yearly inflation rate refers to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate as announced on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website.
This market will resolve as soon either 0% or 6% is reached per an official announcement, I will not wait for corrections which could possibly invalidate the resolution and will not change the resolution should that happen. If on the other hand, a correction tips the inflation rate over a threshold (for example was originally announced as 5.9% gets corrected to 6%), I will resolve this market.
Other data source for exploring the evolution of the US inflation rate:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
As of Feb 2024, inflation rate is 3.1%.
1,000takeoff.watch forecast: 58%. CPI is 3.7% on a war-driven oil spike. Hitting 6% soon would need gasoline near $5.8 a gallon, while falling oil should pull inflation toward 1–2% in 2027. Since 1947 the race has been roughly even, and lasting pressures like deficits and pressure on the Fed tilt it modestly toward 6% coming first.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot