Each answer resolves YES if Donald Trump and that person both appear in person at the same public event between November 10, 2026 00:00 ET and November 26, 2026 23:59 ET. Otherwise it resolves NO. Answers are independent, so several can be YES.
What counts as appearing together in public: both people are physically present at the same event that is open to the press or broadcast/livestreamed. Examples: an Oval Office or Cabinet Room session with the press pool, a televised Cabinet meeting, a rally, a ceremony, a summit session, a sporting event, a speech.
Evidence I'll use: a photo or video from the White House, C-SPAN, AP, Reuters, Getty or a major US network showing both people at the event, or a White House press-pool report naming both as present.
What doesn't count: private meetings, phone or video calls, closed-door meetings that are only reported afterward, and "both were in the same city."
Times are US Eastern. I'll resolve within a few days of close and link the evidence for every YES. If an answer gets no qualifying evidence, it resolves NO.
1,000My starting numbers, since every answer opens at 50%:
Marco Rubio ~85%. As Secretary of State he's at most of Trump's big foreign-policy events, and the Iran war means plenty of those.
JD Vance ~70%. Normally this would be higher, but they split in public last week after Vance blamed the Iran war for the midterm losses. Trump called the post "fine", so I don't think they're avoiding each other. (TheWrap, Nov 4)
Pete Hegseth ~60%. The House impeachment vote is this week. Trump could stand next to him or keep his distance, and I can't tell which.
Mike Johnson ~50%.
Elon Musk ~15%, Netanyahu ~15%, Mamdani ~7%.
What would change my mind: a scheduled televised Cabinet meeting in the window (that would push Vance, Rubio and Hegseth up), a Netanyahu visit being announced, or Hegseth resigning. I won't trade this market for at least a week after creating it.