Update 2026-07-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves N/A if the war ends without an election being held To determine when the war has ended, the creator will wait for Wikipedia editors to rename the Russia-Ukraine War (2022-present) page, backdating the end to whenever Wikipedia says it ended

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, followed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Petro Poroshenko are most likely. See the market for live updates (31 traders, as of Jul 18, 2026).

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

MANIFOLD

If Ukraine holds an election while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing, who will win?

Ṁ200Ṁ843

2028

31%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

41%

Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Kyrylo Budanov

Andriy Biletskyi

Petro Poroshenko

Other

Update 2026-07-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves N/A if the war ends without an election being held
- To determine when the war has ended, the creator will wait for Wikipedia editors to rename the Russia-Ukraine War (2022-present) page, backdating the end to whenever Wikipedia says it ended

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If the war ends without an election, this resolves N/A?

How long will you wait to resolve after a ceasefire goes into effect?

@Sqeedee Yep, N/A if there's no election

My current plan is to wait for a consensus of Wikipedia editors to rename the Russia-Ukraine War (2022-present) page, and then backdate to when they say it ended