Standardized Resolution Summary
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reports total national checkpoint traveler throughput of 2,400,000 or more passengers on Thursday, November 26, 2026.
This market resolves to NO if:
TSA reports total national checkpoint throughput of 2,399,999 or fewer passengers on Thursday, November 26, 2026.
Verification & Rules:
The market will be verified using the official TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers reporting database published at
tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes.Resolution will rely on the initial official tally reported by TSA for the specific date of November 26, 2026. Subsequent routine revisions by TSA after the initial publication will not alter the market resolution unless correcting a public typographical error.
Event Details: Thursday, November 26, 2026 (12:00 AM to 11:59 PM local airport time across all participating US TSA security checkpoints).
Market description drafted with assistance from Google Gemini.
1,000Market was at about 40% when I bet; I have it around 2%. Thanksgiving Day itself is the quietest day of the holiday week. Last year TSA screened 1,559,165 people on Thu 11/27/25, against 2.75M the day before: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2025 . This year is running about flat, so 2.4M on the Thursday would take a jump of more than 50%.