Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if the gay club known as 'Central Station Moscow' shuts down by the end of 2026 and is closed for 90 consecutive days.
This market will otherwise resolve NO.
Clarifications
It will be presumed that Central Station Moscow has not shut down until there is reason to believe otherwise.
In order for the market to resolve YES, the 90-day shutdown period must begin before the end of 2026 but does not need to occur entirely within 2026.
If the club relocates to another venue within Moscow, the new venue will be considered a continuation of the current one.
I may trade in this market.
1,000@a_l_e_x So clearly, if you take the "club" out of the "gay club", it resolves YES. What about if you take the "gay" out of the "gay club"?
(What if, instead of outright closing or shutting down, it rebrands to be just a club with no gay branding?)
@Quroe I think it would depend on the exact circumstances. A club can be a gay club even if it doesn't explicitly call itself one. Wiktionary offered the following definition of 'gay bar' (close enough) from 2006 to 2017, barring the occasional vandalism:
A tavern or similar nightclub whose primary clientele is homosexuals.
And from 2017 to the present:
A tavern or similar nightclub whose primary clientele are lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people.
So I would still consider it a gay club as long as it's frequented mostly by a homosexual/bisexual clientele (or clearly caters to that audience). This is hard to measure, of course. I think there ought to be a presumption in favour of the status quo remaining unchanged until there's evidence to the contrary. Though if the club becomes actively anti-gay, that presumption would be reversed.