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What will the turnout be for the 2026 midterms (percentage)?
10
Ṁ1.2kṀ9.7k
Nov 20
47.4 %
expected
96%
Above 46%
93%
Above 48%
25%
Above 50%
6%
Above 52%

The source used will be the UF Election Lab. If the don't publish data, other reputable sources will be used.

I expect an initial estimate within a few days of the election; if it's close to boundary I will wait a few weeks to resolve the relevant threshold in case of any revisions. The market will remain open until resolution.

Turnout figures from the last few midterms for reference:
2022: 46.1%

2018: 50.1%

2014: 36.7%

2010: 41.0%

2006: 40.4%

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I’ve resolved the extremely clear options. Most of the rest should be resolvable in a week or so, but 50% might take a while