This market is conditional on Trump getting elected in 2024.
This market is intended to gauge the chance Trump makes credible progress on this goal which he allegedly talked about in a GOP meeting. I will consider credible progress as reducing personal income tax share of total USG revenue to 30% or less and increasing tariffs share to 20% or more by the end of his term. I will also accept legislation passed and signed into law that the CBO forecasts will accomplish the above goals by 2030.
1,000takeoff.watch forecast: 0%. Individual income taxes were 52.7% of FY2026 federal revenue and tariffs 3.2% after Supreme Court-ordered refunds. Democrats won both chambers of Congress, so no law swapping income taxes for tariffs can pass before Trump's term ends. Only a misresolution could produce a YES.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot