Are you going to resolve this at the close date according to some criteria or sit on it for five years?

Im going to resolve it in 5 years

open lines of communication are a good sign

This isn't being communicated to the bride! I only know about it because he told one of his tier C friends, who told me

ahh well that's less of a good sign

Enough to change your wager?

nah ill leave it as free alpha for someone else. certainly overpriced now imo

For clarity: the husband had to go to therapy to convince himself to propose + he has openly fantasized about another woman who he's not particularly close to / who he knows has a host of red flags. My position is that the marriage will disintegrate, probably quickly. I'm going to the wedding in a few weeks so I was curious other people's thoughts

Well, it depends on a variety of other factors. Like if they were both from a very conservative culture where divorce is extremely stigmatized, I'd expect they'd probably still have to remain together. But in general I'd guess the marriage won't last in that situation.

Fair. In this case, they're upwardly-mobile young urban professionals living in NYC. Idk their politics but I'd guess centrist-to-liberal

Whose?

Sorry - changed the title for greater specificity. *who* it is isn't the salient part of the question, it's whether a certain behavior of the would-be husband is predictive of marriage failure