NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:
No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals
No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)
Can't be in a fixed track, like the Las Vegas Loop
See also: Will Tesla have more fully autonomous rides in 2026 than Waymo?
I will delay resolution until both companies report results or until the result is extremely clear, or until it's January 2029, where I'll make an informed guess.
(This market is entirely inspired by James so thanks to him and others)
1,000Two Q3 filings bear on 2027. Tesla's Q3 update (8-K) lists the Texas Cybercab line at more than 125,000 vehicles a year with status "Production", and says Cybercab deployment into the Austin Robotaxi fleet began. On the other side, Waymo took out its own $5.0B senior secured term loan in October at SOFR plus 5.25%, not guaranteed by Alphabet (Alphabet Q3 10-Q), while Alphabet's Other Bets lost $2.05B in Q3 against $1.43B a year earlier. Both are spending to scale; building cars is the part Tesla has covered, and the open question for this market is how many cities and private cars get approval to drive with no one watching. Data: Tesla and Alphabet Q3 filings, processed by Equibles.