Will Poland legalize gay marriage by 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves positive if marriages can take place anywhere within Poland between people of the same sex before 2030. It is permissible if the marriages can only take place in some parts of Poland but not other parts
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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1,000takeoff.watch forecast: 1%. Poland still cannot perform same-sex marriages; it only records marriages concluded abroad. President Nawrocki, in office until August 2030, vetoed even a minimal cohabitation bill, and the override failed by 27 votes. Yes is left mainly to the small chance of a misresolution.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot