takeoff.watch forecast: 15%. No fusion device has made net electricity yet. Helion's Orion rests on unproven physics, and CFS's ARC is still at early design, so commercial fusion power by end-2035 needs one of them to beat fusion's long record of slipping schedules. I put it at about 15%.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

I probably should have asked this question beforehand, but do you have resolution criteria for this? Does this require economic breakeven (ie the supplier is making money) or is it okay for them to make a loss selling power from a single power plant at engineering breakeven?

https://manifold.markets/mistersplice/will-fusion-power-be-commercially-a-cc8ec42f1ed5?r=bWlzdGVyc3BsaWNl

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2045?

51% chance.

https://manifold.markets/mistersplice/will-fusion-power-be-commercially-a-ec3e187aedb2?r=bWlzdGVyc3BsaWNl

Will fusion power be commercially available by 2050?

62% chance.

In that time frame you're pretty much betting on Helion. I don't think there are any other commercial projects that have done the capital investment already that they'd likely be able to prove out in that window. I doubt I'd put Helion's odds over 20% . . . I confess, I'm actually pretty skeptical of them, honestly, so maybe more like 5-8%.

@AndrewHartman what year would guess it will happen?