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MANIFOLD
Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?
86
Ṁ1kṀ53k
Dec 31
14%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • This market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2026, the trading price of SpaceX Class A Common Stock (Nasdaq: SPCX) drops below $100.00 USD.

  • This includes regular trading hours, pre-market, and after-hours trading.

  • The primary source of truth for the stock price of SPCX will be Yahoo Finance.

  • If a stock split, reverse split, stock dividend, or other recapitalization event occurs, the $100.00 target threshold will be adjusted proportionally (e.g., a 2-for-1 stock split would adjust the target threshold to $50.00).

  • If the stock does not drop below $100.00 (or its split-adjusted equivalent) at any point by the close of the final trading session of 2026, this market will resolve to NO.

  • If SpaceX is acquired, delisted, or ceases to trade prior to the end of 2026 without having dropped below $100.00, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

  • SpaceX priced its historic initial public offering (IPO) at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at $1.77 trillion.

  • Under the ticker SPCX, the Class A common stock began public trading on the Nasdaq exchange on June 12, 2026.

  • This market tracks whether the stock will fall approximately 26% from its IPO offer price of $135 to reach double digits ($99.99 or lower) at any point during its first several months of trading.

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One date that matters here: December 8, when the 180-day lock-up ends with a last tranche of up to 797.6 million shares. On October 22, up to 1.3 billion shares came free and the stock fell 9.1% on 2.3 times its average volume, but it closed at $141.31 on November 3, so this market needs a fall of about 29%. Across lock-ups in the 440 US IPOs Equibles read, the typical stock didn't fall when one ended: over three days the median beat the S&P 500 by 0.7%. An extended lock-up on about 60% of the company runs to mid-2027, so much of the stock stays locked past this market's close. Source: Equibles, https://equibles.com/research/who-is-actually-locked-up-after-an-ipo

bought Ṁ250 YES