/clarify-resolution what is meant by valuation here? Is it based of latest funding round or only when they IPO or what

@patrik #5 OpenAI achieves a higher valuation than Anthropic at some point on or before December 31, 2028 This option means that there exists at least one point in time on or before December 31, 2028, where OpenAI has a higher valuation than Anthropic. Valuation is determined by the post-money valuation from the most recent equity funding round (for private companies) or market capitalization (post-IPO or other public listings). It resolves YES if credible public reports or announcements show OpenAI's valuation exceeding Anthropic's at any snapshot (e.g., after a new funding round, IPO pricing, or secondary transaction); it resolves NO if Anthropic's valuation remains higher or equal throughout the period with no such crossover. Secondary market estimates or analyst reports may count if widely accepted as authoritative, but the primary evidence is official round announcements or IPO filings.

Updated: OpenAI achieves a higher valuation than Anthropic at some point on or before December 31, 2028 -> OpenAI achieves a higher valuation than Anthropic (per latest funding round post-money valuation or post-IPO market cap) at some point on or before December 31, 2028

/clarify-resolution openai valuation

@patrik #5 OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028 This proposition resolves to YES if OpenAI's valuation (typically the most recent post-money valuation from a funding round or public market capitalization if applicable, based on credible reports from sources like Reuters, Bloomberg, or company filings) is higher than Anthropic's valuation at any point on or before December 31, 2028. It resolves to NO if OpenAI's valuation never exceeds Anthropic's by that deadline. Valuations are snapshot-based and can fluctuate with new rounds or market events; the comparison uses contemporaneous reported figures for each company.

Updated: OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028 -> OpenAI achieves a higher valuation than Anthropic at some point on or before December 31, 2028

@patrik I would suggest editing the description to add in useful extra info from the clarifications, maybe something like

OpenAI's valuation
Pre-IPO valuations are limited to primary funding round, tender offer, or IPO pricing
OpenAI valuation must exceed Anthropic's valuation at any particular point in time on or before December 31, 2028. This may well make resolution before at least one has become a listed company difficult as qualifying pre-IPO valuations are likely to be rare so unlikely to have valuations for both at the same point in time.

/clarify-resolution openai valuation
The term "valuation" is used for pre-IPO valuations, the question does not specify market capitalisation which would indicate a traded company market price valuation. So what valuations are permitted for this question? Some markets on Manifold limit this to funding rounds only, does this question follow this approach?

If the Open AI funding round completes, is the valuation of openAI then greater than the last Anthropic valuation? Alternately does some allowance or other mechanism for possibility that Anthropic has increased in value since its last funding round need to be made? If so and if valuations pre-IPO are limited does that make the question impossible to resolve until both have become listed shares?

@ChristopherRandles #5 OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028 This option asks whether OpenAI's valuation will exceed Anthropic's valuation at any point on or before December 31, 2028. 'Valuation' here is ambiguous without specified sources or methods (e.g., does it include only primary funding rounds/tender offers/IPO pricing, or also secondary market marks, analyst estimates, or public market cap post-IPO? The user's query highlights uncertainty about whether comparisons are limited to the most recent closed funding rounds for each company, how to handle one company going public first, or if interim increases in the other's value are considered). It would resolve YES based on credible reports (company announcements, SEC filings, major financial press) showing OpenAI's valuation figure surpassing Anthropic's at the relevant time; otherwise NO. Secondary transactions typically do not set official valuations in similar markets.

(Wanted to update to OpenAI's valuation (from primary funding round, tender offer, IPO pricing, or public market cap) exceeds Anthropic's valuation (from primary funding round, tender offer, IPO pricing, or public market cap) at any point on or before December 31, 2028. but couldn't due to a technical error.)

/check-resolutions openai valuation

@patrik No options resolved. The single unresolved prop (OpenAI valuation exceeds Anthropic's by Dec 31, 2028) remains uncertain. As of early November 2026, OpenAI is closing a round around $1.25T (last confirmed $852B in March 2026), while Anthropic's last private round was $965B (May 2026) with secondary marks ~$1T+ and IPO expectations around $1.5T–$1.6T (or higher). Both companies' valuations will fluctuate significantly through IPOs (Anthropic imminent, OpenAI targeted 2027) and market/revenue developments over the next two+ years. No clear, definitive outcome or impossibility established. User's request relates directly to the valuation topic and appears made in good faith.

/check-resolutions <OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028>
evidence:
https://uk.investing.com/news/company-news/openai-raises-just-11bn-of-30bn-target-as-ai-investor-appetite-cools--wsj-4947059

"OpenAI has secured approximately $11 billion in commitments for its latest funding round, falling well short of its initial $30 billion target as investor concerns over artificial intelligence spending intensify, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday.

The financing values the ChatGPT maker at $1.25 trillion, below the $1.4 trillion valuation it initially sought, according to the report."

.

Anthropic last funding round valuation was $965 billion.
Google Search
Anthropic's last major private funding round was its Series H round in May 2026, which valued the company at $965 billion post-money

$1.25T is more than $965 billion
This would seem to work perhaps only if the valuations are limited to funding rounds or similar before any IPOs as several other markets seem to do.

@patrik. no reply? maybe needs human review anyway?

/check-resolutions didnt openai file their confidential s-1 for ipo?

@patrik Option 2 resolves YES because OpenAI filed their confidential S-1 in June 2026. Option 5 remains unresolved as the 2028 valuation comparison deadline is far in the future with fluctuating private valuations and no conclusive evidence either way.

Resolved: - #2 Files IPO S-1 by December 31, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI publicly announced and confirmed filing a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC on June 8, 2026 (well before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline), as stated on their official blog and reported across multiple outlets including AP News, CNBC, and others.

openAI already filed their confidential S-1. so either that should resolve yes already or possibly you're referring to the public S-1?

/clarify-resolution <Signs NATO AI contract by September 30, 2026, hasn't Open AI signed a contract with the U.S. military which is a part of NATO? Or is this NATO as a whole?>

@DanzoAlerantos Resolved option 1 to NO (no NATO contract signed by deadline; US military deal does not count) and option 3 to YES (run rate already ~$70B). Options 2 and 5 remain uncertain (IPO timing delayed past 2026; 2028 valuation comparison too far out). User's query appears to be a good-faith clarification request on option 1.

Resolved: - #1 Signs NATO AI contract by September 30, 2026 -> NO: No evidence of any signed NATO contract by the Sept 30, 2026 deadline (or since). March 2026 reports only described OpenAI 'considering' or 'looking at' a potential deal for unclassified NATO networks; no follow-up confirmation of signing exists. The confirmed US DoD/Pentagon deal (Feb 2026) is separate and does not qualify as a NATO alliance contract. - #3 Annualized revenue tops $30B by December 31, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate reached nearly $70 billion as of late September 2026 (well above $30B), with strong growth in enterprise and consumer segments continuing into Q3/Q4.

/add-option Exceed's anthropic's valuation by eof 2028

@spacedroplet Your option was accepted and added as: OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028

This explores a fresh angle on OpenAI's competitive positioning vs. a key rival, which is timely given recent valuation flips in 2026 and the path to IPOs. It meets uniqueness, uncertainty, and resolvability criteria.

/check-resolutions <open ai released gpt 5.5>

@MarcoMar Resolved option 4 to YES: OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, well before the July 1 deadline. No other options have sufficient evidence for resolution at this time.

Resolved: - #4 Releases GPT-5.5 or later by July 1, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, confirmed by official OpenAI announcements, TechCrunch, CNBC, Wikipedia, and other sources.