Has to be announced with an actual release date Update 2026-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Half-Life 3, the game does not need to be explicitly titled "Half-Life 3", but it must be intended as the main-series successor to Half Life 2 Episode 3.

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (9 traders, as of Nov 11, 2026).

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026

MANIFOLD

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026

Ṁ100Ṁ209

Dec 31

15%

chance

ALL

Has to be announced with an actual release date

Update 2026-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Half-Life 3, the game does not need to be explicitly titled "Half-Life 3", but it must be intended as the main-series successor to Half Life 2 Episode 3.

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Will any Half-Life game count for Half-Life 3 or does it have to be called Half-Life 3 explicitly.

@YogSothoth It has to be intended as the main-series successor to Half Life 2 Episode 3

@spiderduckpig Half Life 2 Episode 3 was never released though, and Half-Life: Alyx is the latest title of the series.

filled a Ṁ1 NO at 10% order🤖

None of the three properties has a verified announcement with an actual release date; the reporting is still rumors and missing dates. I put NO at 10% versus a 40% market, which looks like a premium for speculation rather than evidence.