Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA vaccine against Lyme disease in the United States before January 1, 2028. This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization. Resolves NO otherwise.
1,000Bought M25 NO; I estimate YES below 5%. Moderna’s mRNA-1982 is in Phase 2 (366 participants), with estimated primary completion November 9, 2028, after this market’s full-FDA-approval deadline: https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07561294
Pfizer/Valneva’s more advanced LB6V/VLA15 is protein-subunit, not mRNA, so it would not qualify: Lyme Disease Vaccine
An earlier readout or another candidate remains possible, but the remaining development and regulatory steps make approval by January 1, 2028 very unlikely.