Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the time period in which Restore Britain (or a coalition/formal government arrangement in which it participates) officially enters national government in the United Kingdom.

• Definition of "in power":

  • A member of Restore Britain is appointed Prime Minister of the United Kingdom; OR

  • Restore Britain forms a government (either with an outright majority or as the primary governing party in a minority/coalition arrangement); OR

  • Restore Britain enters into an official, formally gazetted government coalition where party members are appointed as Cabinet ministers (members of His Majesty's Government). A confidence-and-supply agreement without ministerial Cabinet seats does not qualify unless the market creator specifies otherwise.

• Answers resolution:

  • Before 2030: Resolves YES if Restore Britain enters power on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59:59 UTC.

  • 2030–2034: Resolves YES if the date falls between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2034, 23:59:59 UTC.

  • 2035–2039: Resolves YES if the date falls between January 1, 2035, and December 31, 2039, 23:59:59 UTC.

  • 2040 or later: Resolves YES if the date falls on or after January 1, 2040, 00:00:00 UTC.

  • Never: Resolves YES if Restore Britain is formally dissolved, wound down, or ceases to exist as a political entity without ever having formed government, or if the United Kingdom ceases to have a Prime Minister/Cabinet government system before Restore Britain takes power.

• Sources of truth: Official announcements from the UK Prime Minister's Office (10 Downing Street) and records on UK Parliament.

Background

Restore Britain is a right-wing British political party founded by Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth. Lowe, who was elected to Parliament in the July 2024 general election as a Reform UK MP, split from Reform UK following disputes with party leadership. Restore Britain was initially organized as a political movement in 2025 before being registered as an official political party with the Electoral Commission in early 2026. The party advocates for strict border controls, mass deportations, low taxation, and traditional social policy, positioning itself to the political right of Reform UK. Under the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system, smaller insurgent parties face high structural hurdles to winning a parliamentary majority or entering a coalition government.