Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2040 (23:59:59 UTC), a member of the Restore Britain political party is officially appointed and takes office as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

• Official appointment is verified via the UK Parliament website (parliament.uk) or official announcements from 10 Downing Street / The Gazette.

• The Prime Minister must be an officially affiliated member or leader of Restore Britain at the time of appointment, or lead a government representing Restore Britain as the primary governing party.

• If an incumbent Prime Minister defects to Restore Britain while remaining in office, this will also trigger a YES resolution upon official party confirmation.

• A coalition government led by a Prime Minister from another political party does not count unless the individual holding the office of Prime Minister is a member of Restore Britain.

• If no member of Restore Britain serves as Prime Minister prior to January 1, 2040, or if the party dissolves without ever having held the premiership, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Restore Britain is a right-wing British political party founded and led by Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth. Originally formed as a movement following Lowe's break from Reform UK in 2025, it formally registered as a political party with the Electoral Commission in early 2026. The party advocates policies focused on strict immigration control, lower taxation, institutional reform, and national sovereignty. Under the UK's first-past-the-post parliamentary system, a party leader typically becomes Prime Minister by securing an overall majority in the House of Commons or assembling a governing coalition or confidence-and-supply agreement.