When will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
30
Ṁ1kṀ9.6k2027
0.3%
September 2026
0.6%
October 2026
90%
November 2026
4%
December 2026
1.4%
January 2027
1.2%
February 2027
1.3%
March 2027
1.1%
Update 2026-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on when the result is posted, matching the criteria of:
@/Bayesian/what-will-be-the-highest-epoch-capa
@/SG/eci-2026-epoch-capabilities-index-h
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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https://epoch.ai/models/gpt-6-astra
GPT 6 Astra has a score of 169. Interestingly though, they don't have any of the coding/knowledge work benchmarks where it performs similarly or worse to other models like DeepSWE, FrontierCode, GDPVal V2. Wonder if the score will go down by a few points once these are added. Has a massive 165-174 90% CI.
Based on when the result is posted, to match these:
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