I hold Genter YES here and Genter NO in the separate binary. Electoral Commission snapshot observed around 12:37 UTC on 7 November: Renney 15,307, Genter 15,167, after 74/74 preliminary voting-place returns. The page explicitly says this is not the formal declaration and aims for official results on 27 November. Source: https://electionresults.govt.nz/ge2026/electorate-details-58.html

A 140-vote lead can still change on specials. For illustration, if 2,000 valid candidate special votes remain, Genter needs a net advantage over Renney exceeding 7% of those ballots; with 4,000, it is 3.5%. These are sensitivity scenarios, not estimates of the actual number or composition of Wellington specials. I have not verified that current denominator. Boundaries and the Labour candidate changed from 2023 Rongotai, so its historical special-vote pattern is not a current projection.

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