Renney leads by 140 on the preliminary count, but about 399,000 special votes are still to be counted nationally, and in inner-city seats those tend to lean Green. Genter only needs a small edge among them. It was at about 52% when I bet; I have it around 82%. https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/361113582/nervous-waits-wellington-where-140-votes-could-change-futures

Reason: Renney leads Genter by 140 votes after all 74 voting places were counted in preliminary results, and the margin could still move once special votes are added.

Other traders should consider: Special votes (about 400,000 nationally) are still to be counted before the official declaration expected on 27 November, and in 2023 some electorates flipped on margins of 4 and 29 votes. Check whether the market closes before that declaration.

I hold Genter NO here and Genter YES in the Wellington Bays winner market: /Jack1/2026-wellington-bays-electorate-win

Both descriptions concern who wins the same electorate at the 2026 general election. At about 09:02 UTC on 7 November, displayed Genter YES prices were 81% here and 63% there. These are marginal quotes, not executable prices for an entire position.

My paired holdings rely on consistent normal resolution. Cancellation or differing interpretations can break that match, and capital may stay tied up. I am not treating the preliminary count as final or claiming a risk-free profit. Please flag any intended resolution difference between these markets.