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Resolves according to major media reporting and race calls(such as associated press). If needed, wait for official results.
Clarifications:
Any senate election has margin of victory of 0.5% or less. Resolves on deciding round if ranked choice/runoff
Any senate candidate wins with 47% or less of the vote. Resolves based on deciding round result if runoff/ranked
Any senate race NOT called by the associated press 2 days after polls closed? Resolves based on poll closing time in the state, by the latest poll closing time
Any Republican held senate seat is called by the associated press within 2 minutes of polls closing in the state. Resolves based on final poll closing
Abdul El Sayed wins by more than Peggy Flanagan does in Minnesota? (If one/both lose, resolves if Abdul performs better than Peggy)
A Tweet from @AbdulElSayed/ @jamestalarico gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours. (Must be posted before end of a Nov 8 eastern time. Must be from that specific account. Must be posted after polls close on election day in their state. Includes Quote Tweets they post.
House/senate totals resolve on news media projections, like AP/NBC, and party changes will not change the result. Eg. If Dems win 53 senate seats in the election, and Fetterman switches leaving them with 52 seats, it counts as them winning 53 for this market.
Update 2026-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer regarding Republican senate candidates claiming the election was stolen, "the election" refers to their own election.
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Added some answers for the Mississippi senate race.
I think this market might be saved by Alaska being a slow counting state lol
If Peltola wins w/ under 50% first round (seems possible) there might be some serious controversy
It seems to me like the true electoral impact of the ballot stacking is basically none (imperceptible difference from normal amounts of non-ranking minor candidate voters) and that this was just ridiculous incompetency to decide it would be worth so much time, money, and controversy to try to split the ticket in a state with RCV, and almost certainly only hurt Peltola's electoral prospects. But the controversy itself seems like it will create a ton of doubt if Peltola doesn't get 50% first round regardless of whether the counterfactual actually would have had Peltola lose (Which I think is highly unlikely).
@Jack1 By "the election," do you mean the election in which they participated? (For example, Darline Graham claiming the South Carolina Senate race was stolen.) Or would declaring any midterm race stolen qualify? (Example: Roger Marshall claims the Alaska Senate race was stolen.)