Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?
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Ṁ1kṀ7.4kDec 31
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resolves yes if Nationals party vote is higher than Greens,ACT and NZ first combined.
Eg. if greens=8% act 7% and NZ first 9%. that is 24% combined. if National got 22%, this would resolve no. If National got 30%, this would resolve yes.
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Market was ~21% when I bet NO; I've got it around 7%. National has trailed Greens + ACT + NZ First combined in every one of the last ten polls, usually by 6 to 9 points (latest RNZ-Reid: 24.8 vs 34.5). Even the 2023 polling miss in National's favour would not close that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_New_Zealand_general_election
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