The Secretary of War William Belknap was impeached even after resigning in 1876. Will Peter Hegseth follow suit?
Resolves YES on impeachment, regardless of what the Senate does. If he leaves office in other manner or serves the whole Trump term, without an impeachment process having been initiated, resolves NO. Any impeachment process started in the timeframe can result in YES, when the process ends, is not material.
Update 2026-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Introducing articles of impeachment alone is not sufficient to resolve YES. The bar for YES requires more than just articles being introduced.
1,000Market was ~61% when I bet; I have it ~82%. Kalshi's "impeached before July 1, 2027" trades near 75%, and this covers the whole term, so it shouldn't be lower. GOP sources expect Massie's vote next week to pass, and a new Democratic House gets a shot in January if it doesn't. https://www.wlox.com/2026/11/05/house-could-vote-next-week-impeach-hegseth-gop-support-wavers/
@JussiVilleHeiskanen How about articles being introduced?
Any impeachment process started in the timeframe can result in YES, when the process ends, is not material.